Merger Watch for Sirius

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Dec. 5 at 8:36 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

It was bound to happen sometime: Last night, Sirius(SIRI Quote) under Mel Karmazin became, well, less serious. This revision downward in Sirius sales comes at a really bad time: more than 10 trading days before Christmas.

I know for a fact that this management team was not going to make a call on sales until closer to Christmas. But the downward revision in subscribers, to a range of 5.9 million to 6.1 million instead of the targeted 6.3 million, is the first big miss for the Karmazin team. It remains to be seen whether the miss was telegraphed in the stock or whether the equity now has to drop below the $4 level. To me, the latter seems more likely.

I have to tell you, I thought that without a merger with XM(XMSR Quote), these two companies might not create a lot of wealth in the next few years. Mel convinced me I was wrong.

I wasn't. I blew it. I should have stuck to my guns. I feel embarrassed. And I don't like it.

Mel had been money in the bank. Everyone deserves one strike. But in my league, two strikes and you're out.

Even a half-strike more and you're out in this satellite game. If Mel hits the low end of the range or doesn't hit it at all -- both entirely possible if sales don't pick up in the next two weeks -- this one's done for, without a merger.

Should have stuck with my first view.

My bad.

Random musings: Thanks so much to everyone who came out to the Barnes & Noble last night in Clifton, N.J. for my book signing. Couldn't make it? I'll see you Wednesday night in Bridgewater, N.J.!