Sagging Sears Shares Face Another Test

Shares of Sears Holdings(SHLD) have shed 10% since Kmart merged with Sears about a year ago to form the third-largest discount retail chain in the U.S. With investors expecting the company's first full-year profit report any day now, some are wondering if another serving of market-share losses will weigh the stock down even further.

Ed Lampert, the hedge fund guru of ESL Investments who orchestrated the merger, has been flying below Wall Street's radar. As chairman of Sears Holdings, he doesn't provide the customary monthly sales results reported by most retailers. He doesn't do quarterly conference calls with analysts. He doesn't even provide detailed information about when to expect the company's earnings releases, but he has enjoyed the quiet support of a group of savvy hedge funds and institutional investors who pushed the stock as high as $163.50 last summer.

With the stock down over 28% since then at $117, how much longer can that support last from an investor group that's notorious for its short-term view?

"I think he's got pressure on him from major shareholders to do something," says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of a retail consultancy and investment-banking firm called Davidowitz & Associates. "Eventually, the company could lose so much market share and become so irrelevant to the marketplace that the stock could drop to $60, and I think Lampert knows that. A lot of the hedge funds that own the shares want the company to be liquidated, since they got into it for the value in the real estate in the first place."

Lampert brushed off such criticism back in December when Sears Holdings reported third-quarter earnings of $58 million, or 35 cents a share, including charges totaling 7 cents a share from restructuring and divestitures. Sales were $12.2 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had projected earnings of 28 cents a share on sales of $12.95 billion.