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When 'Buy What You Know' Doesn't Pay

12/13/06 - 02:13 PM EST

Scott Rothbort

4. Krispy Kreme DoughnutsKKD: If you read Jim Cramer's Confessions of a Street Addict, then you probably know Jim as someone who lived for a Krispy Kreme and a great stock idea. Unfortunately, the company could deliver only the former, not the latter.

Even though the "under new management" sign is hanging in Krispy Kreme's window, you have to wonder whether its business model is or ever was viable. Sales continue to decline. The baking business has always been tough. Dunkin Donuts has been handed from owner to owner for years with relatively little success. Just look at the history of Interstate Bakeries or Tasty Baking TSTY.

Bring a dozen Krispy Kremes to your next client meeting, but don't sell them on the stock. Nothing beats McDonald's MCD when it comes to a food-service investment.

5. Alternative energy stocks: Let's reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and tell OPEC to stick it. It's the thought that counts. This entire asset class gets the great-product, bad-investment nod. We can use light, water, wind, steam or bovine excrement to generate energy for all I care. But even if Earth, Wind and Fire were to sing for us, it is highly unlikely that a stand-alone company is going to make you a dime in the alternative energy sector.

Maybe some big-cap companies like Archer Daniels Midland ADM or a utility like FPL GroupFPL can hide their alternative energy losses under the rest of their profitable portfolios. Occasionally, a Johnny-come-lately alternative energy stock will go public and get investors all lathered up in the first few months of life, only to succumb eventually to traditional valuation techniques. The Pink Sheets and OTC bulletin boards are littered with the carcasses of alternative energy stocks.

Here is a Web site devoted to alternative energy stocks. Go ahead, knock yourself out, and try to find a stand-alone alternative energy investment. Over the long run, these are bad investments. In the meantime, think green, and invest in Exxon Mobil XOM.




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At the time of publication, Rothbort was long McDonald's and Exxon Mobil, although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. In 2002, Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Millburn, N.J., which offers customized individually managed separate accounts, including proprietary long/short strategies to its high net worth clientele.

Immediately prior to that, Rothbort worked at Merrill Lynch for 10 years, where he was instrumental in building the global equity derivative business and managed the global equity swap business from its inception. Rothbort previously held international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London while working for Morgan Stanley and County NatWest Securities.

Rothbort holds an MBA in finance and international business from the Stern School of Business of New York University and a BS in economics and accounting from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Professor of Finance and the Chief Market Strategist for the Stillman School of Business of Seton Hall University.

For more information about Scott Rothbort and LakeView Asset Management, LLC, visit the company's Web site at www.lakeviewasset.com. Scott appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.


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