Bolling: Betting on the Buck

The moon is waxing crescent. It is 39% visible on its way to the first-quarter phase appearing on July 10. It's not until July 18 that the full moon is visible, as the sun reflects the moon's full image back to Earth.

It is said that people, animals, tides and events are affected by the lunar cycle. The notion is that these unpredictable occasions become increasingly emphatic as we approach a full moon. It is believed that crime rates increase and people's behavior becomes more erratic and agitated as we approach the full moon.

Apply that science to the markets, and we are in store for some wild trading over the next 10 days. If the wild swings and gyrations of the last two days are any indicator of the next 10, put your seat belts on and get ready for liftoffs or crash landings or more likely, both.

So what has been moving the market the last few days? Oil? Nope. Earnings? Nah. Economic data? Not really. The one indicator that has been moving just ahead of wild swing in the market is the dollar.

The dollar started out strong in Europe on Monday, and the indexes were up in early trading. The dollar started to weaken and fell sharply at around 10 a.m. Two hours later, the Dow began a rapid slide from 11,350 down to bear territory at 11,150. Then, on Tuesday, after spending the early morning resting around the unchanged level , Mr. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM)), offered a bit of hope through a truly compelling speech to the FDIC forum in Arlington, Va.