Bolling: Ag Stocks Mirror Oils

What a lifetime as a trader does to one's mind!

Tomatoes are tainted, what does that mean? There must be a trade there somewhere. What do people replace the tomato with? Onions perhaps? Is there a way to trade from the long onion position? Or maybe I should be buying Heinz(HNZ). Ketchup is made from tomatoes, but I just can't see me ordering a turkey on rye with lettuce and ketchup. If you spend enough time trading, you realize that regular events in daily life somehow translate into trades.

Two and a half years ago I was in the mall with my son Eric Chase. It was February so the big holiday sales push had faded into memory. Eric grabbed me and dragged me into GameStop(GME). He had to try out the newest games and see if there was a used game trade for himself.

What I saw was a trade. There were three lines filled with people buying games -- both new and used. I couldn't wait to get into GameStop stock. I went to the air with the call. The others looked at me like I was crazy. I told the story about how my 7-year old turned me onto a great looking retail operation. So, as soon as my restrictions were lifted, I bought GME.

To make a long story less long, two weeks later, GME guided positively for the upcoming first quarter and full-year. That stock went to $25 from $18 in a shot -- 38% in a couple of stress free weeks.