Biotech Watch: Elan's Alzheimer's Drug Data

Biotech investors and analysts are eagerly anticipating the release this summer of new study data for bapineuzumab, an experimental Alzheimer's drug from Elan (ELN) and Wyeth (WYE).

So what do you need to know and what should you be looking for, you ask? Let's review with a little hypothetical Q&A.

Why all the buzz around this drug?

Money, lots of it. Alzheimer's is the biggest unclaimed prize in biomedical research today. More than 5 million people in the U.S. suffer from Alzheimer's right now -- a number that could almost triple by 2050 as our population ages. Worldwide, the disease's prevalence is even greater.

Current drugs aren't very effective. They treat the symptoms of Alzheimer's (loss of cognition and function) only for a short time, yet still bring in about $4 billion in sales annually. Aricept, a drug sold by Pfizer (PFE) and Eisai, and Namenda, sold by Forest Labs (FRX), are the best selling of the bunch.

So, Elan and Wyeth are trying to develop a better Aricept? What's so exciting about that?

No, these guys think (or hope) that bapineuzumab actually attacks the root cause of Alzheimer's. If true, the memory and function of an Alzheimer's patient who takes bapineuzumab might actually improve. At a minimum, the patient wouldn't get any worse over time. The insidious neurological decline of Alzheimer's -- the "loss of self" as some describe it -- would end or be slowed dramatically.

Wow. I'm starting to understand. You said there's big money to be made here. How much?

Is $20 billion enough for you? A blockbuster drug is loosely defined as one with sales of $1 billion or more. Well, a so-called disease-modifying Alzheimer's drug would be a mega-blockbuster.