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Will Amazon Be This Year's Holiday Shopping Winner?

Stocks in this article: AMZN EBAY GOOG

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Despite the aggressive promotions and deals offered by Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Best Buy (BBY), it looks like the winners this holiday season will be online retail giants Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY).

Amazon's same-store sales for the holiday period so far are up 39%, while eBay's same-store sales are up 20.9%, according to a ChannelAdvisor report, which defines the to-date holiday season as Nov. 28, 2013 through Dec. 15, 2013. ChannelAdvisor is comparing the period over last year's Nov. 22 to Dec. 8 period.

"At 39% [year-over-year] growth, Amazon is the most impressive result because of a good comp and they are already at impressive scale," wrote ChannelAdvisor CEO Scot Wingo in the report.

The report also examined same-store sales trends from consumers who look to Google's Shopping section, other comparison shopping engines (CSE) for their holiday gift ideas and price comparisons as well as using other search engines to shop.

Google Shopping saw same-store sales jump 127% from last year's period, the report estimated. Wingo wrote that Google Shopping "is the biggest gainer, but from a very easy comp last year which had less traffic from Google, fewer retailers/advertisers and much less selection."

That said, same-stores sales at eBay and from overall search functions both declined going into week three. "Looking back on last year, eBay had a decent Cyber Five, really hit stride more towards the middle/end of the cycle, so we are starting to have some headwinds in the data from that," Wingo wrote. "Search's decline is largely driven by traffic cannibalization to" Google Shopping.

The 2013 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be somewhat of a mixed bag, depending on which shopping tally one looks at.

ComScore estimated that holiday season U.S. retail e-commerce spending for the first 39 days of the November-December season rose 9% from 2012 to $31.5 billion. (The numbers are desktop spending only, not mobile.)

Yet despite heavy promotions at retail chain stores, December sales are in a "lull," according to Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins.

"Holiday sales data are providing a series of mixed signals suggesting that overall sales may be weaker than they actually are," Perkins wrote in a Dec. 14 note.

Perkins said he expects December same-store sales to rise 2.9% vs. 2.6% last year, in line with expectations over the last three months. However, October same-store sales hit 4%, while November same-store sales slumped, rising just 1.9% -- the weakest monthly comp since March, he noted.

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