The rise in the yields for the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond peaked at 2.936% and 3.94% respectively on Aug. 22. The rise in yields has become overdone on their weekly chart with the 200-week simple moving averages at 2.540% on the 10-Year and 3.648% on the 30-Year.
My call for September is that these yields will form trading ranges influenced by new monthly pivots at 2.725% on the 10-year and 3.738% on the 30-year. The 10-year yield ended August above its pivot, while the 30-year ended the month below its pivot. The rise in yields on Tuesday has the 30-year yield above this pivot this morning.
This configuration normally results in reversal-oriented trading, which would not be surprising given the tendency to see a 'flight to quality' during the Syrian uncertainties and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will taper its QE3 and QE4 bond buying programs. My annual pivots have become risky levels at 2.476% and 3.014% respectively.Continue to trade the bond market just like a stock using iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ($104.22). The Treasury ETF is below its 50-day simple moving average 106.84 with the 200-day SMA a strong resistance at $116.04. The weekly chart shows an oversold condition with the 200-week SMA at $107.68. The Aug. 21 low is $102.11 with a monthly pivot at $105.75 and annual risky levels at $116.26 and $120.42. My semiannual value level lags at $92.32.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV