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Dicker: Is the Commodity Supercycle Over?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I was talking with Jim Cramer today about the Citi note that claims an end to the commodity "supercycle" begun in early 2003. Ed Morse, the head commodity guru for Citi, now sees a fundamental pressure on the commodity sector and a multi-year bear market in the works.

I sat down with Jim and tried to debunk this idea for several reasons. First and foremost, there is still a financial balloon that continues to float higher prices of commodities, even though there is a temporary slowdown of growth, both here in the U.S. and in emerging markets.

Second, there is a continuation of "higher lows" that we see throughout the commodity sector, only excluding those commodities that never participated in the super spike action like aluminum and coal.

But oil remains well above the lows it saw in 2012 and will continue to do so and copper is still at $3.20 a pound and I think unlikely to go below $3. Corn, despite swelling harvests and enormous plantings is still trading well above $6.26 a bushel, hardly a historically cheap price. While the commodity sector might be in a holding area, I don't see any imminent bear markets.

I talk more about this idea with Jim in the video above.

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Dan Dicker has been a floor trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange with more than 25 years of oil trading experience. He is a licensed commodities trade adviser.

Dan is currently President of MercBloc LLC, a wealth management firm and is the author of "Oil's Endless Bid," published in March of 2011 by John Wiley and Sons.

Dan Dicker has appeared as an energy analyst since 2002 with all the major financial news networks. He has lent his expertise in hundreds of live radio and television broadcasts on CNBC, Bloomberg US and UK and CNNfn.

Dan obtained a bachelor of arts degree from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1982.

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