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Bull Market Will End Without Big-Bank Leadership

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The last time I profiled all of the stocks in the PHLX KBW Banking Index (BKX) was back on February 6, when I wrote, The 'Too Big to Fail' Banks Remain Buy Rated Post-Earnings referring to the Q4 2012 earnings season. On February 6 the number of buy rated stocks in the BKX declined to 13. Today there is only one, Citigroup Inc (C). Today I profile these 13 banks post Q1 2013 earnings.

The daily chart for BKX ($56.09) has been showing lower highs since setting a multi-year at $57.60 on March 15. The BKX traded as high as $58.81 back in April 2010. I show quarterly and semiannual value levels at $47.00 and $45.71 with weekly and monthly risky levels at $58.38 and $58.78. A close this week below the five-week modified moving average (MMA) at $55.75 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. In my opinion, you cannot have a bull market in stocks with a bear market in the big banks.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

The finance sector is 16.4% overvalued with the BKX up 9.4% year-to-date lagging the S&P 500, which is up 11.0%. Among the 13 components of the BKX I profile today, 12 are above their 200-day simple moving averages, or SMA, which reflects the risk of a reversion to the mean. I rate the finance sector "underweight," with 67 buy-rated stocks and 232 sell-rated stocks in this important sector.



Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

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