NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The FOMC doubled-down its quantitative easing programs as their foolish monetary policy continues. QE3 continues with the Federal Reserve Open Market trading desk purchasing $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month.
QE4 adds another $45 billion in monthly purchases of longer-dated US Treasury securities. Adding to this foolishness is a Federal Reserve target for the unemployment rate. The FOMC will maintain the zero to 0.25% federal funds rate until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%. To me this means that the new normal for full employment will be an unemployment rate at 6.5%. YIKES!
When I wrote Stocks Go Cliff Hanging Anticipating QE4 on Wednesday I predicted stocks were rallying in anticipation of QE4, and once that event was confirmed the markets would return to the possibility that the U.S. economy would fall off the fiscal cliff as 2013 begins.
I predicted that the QE4 market highs would be below the QE3 reaction high ending the first upward bungee move, which began from the Nov. 16 lows. If the bungee pattern holds the next market lows will be above the Nov. 16 lows, unless the cord breaks.Here's the scorecard of market volatility as investors focused on QE3, then the fiscal cliff, then on QE4, and now back to the cliff.
Key Levels for the US Capital MarketsAnalysis of the Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (1.732%): The weekly chart shows that this yield remains locked in a trading range between 1.894% set on Sept. 14, the day after QE3 was announced, and 1.377%, the record low yield set on July 25. This range is influenced by my semiannual value level at 1.853% and my semiannual risky level at 1.389%. Analysis of Comex Gold ($1697.7): The weekly chart favors lower gold prices given a close today below the five-week modified moving average at $1,714.9. Gold is trading between its 200-day simple moving average at $1,663.3 and its 50-day SMA at $1,724.7 around my semiannual pivot at $1,702.5. My monthly and semiannual value levels are $1679.3 and $1,643.3. My annual value level remains at $1,575.8 for the remainder of the year. Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($86.76): The weekly chart is neutral with oil between its 200-week SMA at $84.03 and its five-week MMA at $87.81. There appears to be upside potential to the 200-day SMA at $92.80. My monthly value level is $78.18 with my annual risky level at $103.58.
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