NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Fears of a government-induced increase in mortgage refinancing activity, which have put pressure on mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs), are excessive, according to a pair of analysts following the sector.
Mortgage REITs had already been taking it on the chin even before the Nov. 6 presidential election, but the pain has only accelerated since then. Since Sept. 21, the Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF (MORT) had dropped 14.36%, including a fall of 5.21% since the election, going into Thursday open. Two of the most widely-followed mortgage REITs, American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), and Annaly Capital Management (NLY) were off their mid-September highs by 21.9% and 26.2%, respectively.
The sector rebounded a bit on Thursday, however, as MORT was up 3.08% in mid-afternoon trading.
Mortgage REITs use leverage to buy mortgage backed securities (MBS), profiting off of the difference between their yield and their borrowing costs. They pay out a hefty dividend--frequently yielding in the double digits.Keefe Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose George believes fears over refinancing are an important reason for the selloff. An increase in refinancing is negative for mortgage REITs because it forces them to reinvest high-yielding MBS that they bought in previous years at interest rates that have fallen to new lows. In a note published Thursday, George cites investor concern over proposed legislation from Sen. Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.) and Robert Menendez (D., NJ) that would increase refinancing opportunities through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). "While these changes would increase the pool of potential HARP borrowers and make HARP refinances easier, we believes that mortgage industry capacity constraints are likely to limit the ability of originators to meaningfully increase HARP volume," George writes. For the same reason, George isn't too worried about concerns President Obama will replace Federal Housing Finance Authority director Ed Demarco--a staunch opponent of many refinancing programs. Again, George doesn't believe banks can handle all that much more refinancing. On Tuesday, another analyst, Gabe Poggi, called refi-related fears "the largest source of anxiety" coming from investors in mortgage REITs. He cites the argument from his Washington-focused colleague, Ed Mills, who argues replacing DeMarco will be more difficult than investors realize.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV