This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 9:07 a.m. EDT on Sept. 7.
In today's opening missive, I will expand on my responses that I gave to the "Fast Money" team last night (and incorporate some of my writings from this week), as, given the swift line of questioning typically characteristic of the show, there is usually only time for relatively brief responses and sound bites. Melissa Lee first asked me if my top call of two weeks ago was still valid. I said that I remain cautiously pessimistic. I am net short but not yet over my skis short the market. I am bruised but unbowed, and I am unyielding in my concerns. I am long some one-offs such as Avon Products (AVP), which is hopefully still the apple of Coty's eye, but I find that few stocks meet my standards of value. I was obviously wrong about the near-term market prospects discussed a few weeks ago on "Fast Money." I had expected a top at 1420-1425 for the year, and we have overshot that by a few points (so the book may not yet be closed). I continue to view us at or near the top end of the trading range for this year, and I see problems aplenty as we move toward the end of the year. What made stocks ramp on Thursday were the words "without limit and no cap" by Draghi, but I would remind all that the ECB has not spent a single euro yet words alone over the past two months have reduced the Spanish three-year yield to 3.5% from 7.4%, the 10-year Spanish yield to 6% from 7.4% and the Italian 10-year yield to 5.2% from 6.5%. (Now that is a heck of a lot of moral suasion and jawboning!) I know that the gang last night, many of whom are moved by price, was optimistic on the technicals, but I say that there is only so far that central bank policy can take stock prices higher when a host of fundamental issues plague us.
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