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TheStreet Open House

Will Apple's Stock Become Dead Money?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Of all of the hardcore permabulls out there, Apple (AAPL) fan boys and girls do the best job defending their stock.

While the majority of the arguments contain credible analyses of Apple's indisputable dominance, some of the more passionate ones trigger cause for concern. Consider this incredibly clever retort to an article I wrote for TheStreet by a person who calls himself "The Macalope" over at MacWorld.com:

Most of the wide-eyed stares of disbelief focused on a blog post by Forrester Research's George Colony, but it was Rocco Pendola who got the ball o' doom rolling this week writing for TheStreet, which graciously hosts so many of these missives, possibly as part of a government make-work program for crazy people.

With a name like "The Macalope," you can't help but question the writer's objectivity.

Now, mind you, I don't agree with the notion that members of the media or the blogosphere have an obligation to be "objective." We can save the lofty philosophical discussion for later, but, simply put, objectivity is a false notion. I am all for being fair, but fairness and objectivity are distinct concepts.

Like it or not, we're all trying to persuade others to, at the very least, see our point of view. Unless I am showing the reader how to execute an "objective" investment strategy or concept, odds are that I am not being completely objective. Anybody in this business who tells you they are is feeding you a line.

That said, I am going to do my best (for real) to be objective throughout the remainder of this article.

Here's something that is objective, meaning it is "based on facts" and "can be known." It's AAPL's chart spanning April 1 to the close of trading Thursday, May 3, courtesy of Yahoo! Finance:

For one reason or another, AAPL bulls do not want to address something that should be a real concern: AAPL has not even flirted from across the room with the highs it set on April 9 and 10. This is an objective fact.

On April 9, AAPL achieved an all-time closing high of $636.26. Intraday, April 10, AAPL notched its all-time high of $644.00. Since those two tops, the closest AAPL has come to either number is $636.87 (April 11), $631.33 (April 12), $624.70 (April 13) and $620.25 (April 18). In fact, with the exception of a couple multiday pops in April, most of AAPL's activity consists of a series of lower lows following each spike. In other words, bulls were never able to build any momentum to retest $636.26 or $644.00.

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