Google Fans Target Keyword 'Upside'

Updated from 8:03 a.m. EST

Wall Street thinks Google (GOOG) will do as well as or better than Yahoo! (YHOO).

But don't rule out the risk it will pull an eBay (EBAY).

With the Internet search engine phenomenon preparing to release fourth-quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, there's confidence among sell-side analysts that Google will surpass consensus estimates, as Yahoo! did last month.

That scenario faces one obvious threat. Given Google's brief history as a public company and its founders' aloofness, it is possible the company's quarter will reflect higher-than-expected investments in ventures that don't result in immediate cash.

And given the volatility of Google's stock, its phenomenal rise since its $85-a-share initial public offering last August and the confidence that analysts have in the growth of both Google and the Internet advertising market, it's plausible that Google's shares could take a tumble should the company make the slightest stumble. Recall eBay, whose shares dropped 19% the day after its earnings came in a penny below expectations.

But in the event this worst-case scenario comes to pass, at least Google will have an extended opportunity to plead its case later this month. The less-than-forthcoming company -- whose passion for secrecy evidently led its chief counsel afoul of the Securities and Exchange Commission -- is slated to get all chatty when it makes a daylong presentation to analysts Feb. 9.

Another bright spot for Google fans is the diminishing worry about negative repercussions from the final post-IPO lockup expiration on shares held by company insiders. Both the history of orderly trading following previous lockup expirations and limits on the forthcoming Feb. 14 expiration appear to have persuaded analysts that the theoretical increase in the company's float won't sink the stock.

Google shares, which peaked at $205.30 Jan. 19, then dropped to $176.29 last week, rose $5.28 to trade at $195.62 Monday. They're down 14 cents $195.48 Tuesday morning.