Unfolding Microsoft's Origami

Microsoft (MSFT) is promoting an all-new PC design, but will anyone really care?

Formerly code-named Origami, the new design is for an ultramobile computer, or UMPC. The idea is to have a device with much of the same power and features of a notebook or tablet computer in about half the size.

The product represents only the latest effort by Microsoft to create a market for a new class of portable computers. Although notebook computers have seen enormous growth in recent years, the market for related products such as PDAs and tablet PCs has been limited at best.

Some analysts say the same will be true for the UMPC, at least in the near term.

"The technology could be neat, and it may make a difference in the future, but we are years away from a significant financial impact," says Charles Di Bona, a financial analyst who follows Microsoft for Sanford Bernstein, which does not do investment banking.

The UMPC concept faces a number of obstacles to mass adoption -- and to having a meaningful impact on Microsoft's results -- analysts say. Price, market perception, the lack of major vendor support at launch and the actual physical design of the device all could work against the concept, analysts say.

"There's potential there, but I remain skeptical," says Van Baker, a PC industry analyst at market research firm Gartner.

As sketched out by Microsoft, the typical UMPC device would have a seven-inch touch-sensitive screen, weigh less than two pounds, include a 30GB to 60GB hard drive and a built-in wireless networking antenna, and run on an Intel (INTC) or Via mobile processor.

Unlike PDAs running Microsoft software, the computer would run a full version of Microsoft Windows. In addition to allowing users to enter data via the screen, some versions would also include a keyboard.