Banker Pay Can't Be Stopped

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Investor s should prepare for more shocking and unsettling reports that lay out the details of a simple statement: Banker pay will rise.

At banks that are doing exceptionally well, like JPMorgan Chase (JPM Quote) and Goldman SachsTICKER TYPE="EQUITY" SYMBOL="GS" EXCHANGE="NYSE" PRIMARY="NO"/>, banker pay will rise a lot.

Bankers whose divisions performed exceptionally well -- even within a bank that is still suffering, such as Citigroup (C Quote) -- will get an impressive pay bump, too. Otherwise, the bank may just have to sell the business outright to avoid taxpayer fury.

Banks that proactively reweighted their pay packages toward stock rather than cash when stocks and options were worth much less, such as Wells Fargo (WFC Quote), may also see pay rise. It will likely track the direction of -- you guessed it -- the stock.

At banks led by executives who were granted big retirement packages before the crisis and have spent many years at the firm -- such as Bank of America's (BAC Quote) Ken Lewis -- those executives will sail away with a golden parachute, regardless of how anyone feels about their performance over the past year.

As many commentators, observers and regulators have noted, the problem with banker pay has been a misalignment between short-term incentives and long-term decision-making. New rules expected to be implemented by the Federal Reserve were advertised as intended to "curb" pay, but actually they were meant to realign risk-taking and rewards. The rules attempt to accomplish this through requiring time-staggered stock and options grants that can't be immediately redeemed.