Caterpillar: The Canary in the Coal Mine

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Almost exactly one year ago, Caterpillar's chief executive, Jim Owens, in a statement that accompanied the heavy machinery bellwether's third-quarter earnings report, made a serious predictive gaffe.

Sure, he worried about the "substantial turmoil in financial markets" and the "acute weakness" that would likely develop in its North American, European and Japanese business segments. But, he went on to say, "Our current outlook for 2009 calls for sales and revenues to be flat" with the $50 billion the company took in during all of 2008.

Hindsight's perfect vision makes it difficult to criticize Caterpillar too much for the rank inaccuracy of that forecast. (It's worth pointing out here, however, that Caterpillar did presciently sound the economic warning bells in 2007, pre-crash -- making it among the first multinationals to do so.)

As it turns out, of course, the Peoria, Ill.-based company, which has laid off more than 30,000 workers since last year, is on track to bring in revenue of $33 billion in 2009, short of that $50 billion prediction by more than a third.

Couched as it was in so much concerned language, Owens' piece of augury last October didn't seem at the time like a slugger pointing his bat at the stands. But, again in retrospect, that's indeed what it has become -- only this time with the Mighty Casey doing the pointing, and then striking out.

Twelve months later, and also alongside the company's third-quarter earnings release, Caterpillar and Owens have made yet another bold call.

This time around, the prediction runs thusly: that full-year 2010 revenue will grow from 2009 by a rate of 10% to 25%.