Don Dion's Weekly ETF Winners and Losers

Stock quotes in this article: FXP , SRS , USO , UNG , TLT , KWT , GAZ  

This week was very similar to the previous one, thanks to the Oct. 1 slide in the markets. The S&P 500 index lost 1.8% on the week. Disappointing manufacturing data was the focus of headlines, but the market was in bad shape.

The broader index peaked on Sept. 22, but that came after several days of trading produced a cumulative gain of less than 2%. Basically, the market was heading lower, and for whatever reason, investors weren't interested in buying on Thursday.
chart

With that in mind, here are the winners and losers for the week:

Winners

ProShares UltraShort China(FXP Quote) +8.6%

ProShares UltraShort Real Estate(SRS Quote) +6.5% ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000(TWM Quote) +5.8%

FXP and SRS made the list last week. This week I'm adding TWM. As I discussed on my RealMoney blog this week, I think the Russell 2000 may be the best way for bears to play this churning market.

iPath Crude Oil Total Return(OIL Quote) +5.7%

PowerShares DB Oil(DBO Quote) +4.1%

United States Oil(USO Quote) +5.5%

Last week, oil prices plunged on much higher than expected inventories. This week, a decline in inventories touched off a sharp rally. The volatility in oil and big moves indicate there's either too much liquidity or not enough clarity.

Oil spent the better part of four months in a $15 trading range above $59 a barrel and below $74. Oil broke its uptrend, but it's moved only sideways since. It needs to make a decisive move above or below these levels to give a clear signal.

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury(TLT Quote) +1.3%

Treasuries were a safe haven once more, as TLT cracked the $100 level in morning trading on Friday, only to fall back by the close at $99 as interest rates rose. Treasuries appear stronger and, unlike many equities, their charts have been rising for the past few weeks.

Losers

Market Vectors Solar(KWT Quote) -8.5%

Volatility is great on the upside, but it kills on the downside. KWT lost 6% in Thursday's selloff. Shares fell again on Friday, with one bright spot. First Solar(FSLR Quote), 10.58% of assets, was up more than 4% after being added to the S&P 500.

iPath Natural Gas Total Return(GAZ Quote) -3.7%

United States Natural Gas(UNG Quote) -4.8%

The previous week, oil tanked on higher than expected inventories, while natural gas soared on lower than expected inventories. This past week, oil inventory was lower than expected and natural gas inventories hit an all-time high, beating out the October 2007 record.

Naturally, natural gas prices plunged.

iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction(ITB Quote) -6.9%

SPDR S&P Homebuilders(XHB Quote) -4.5%

Pending home sales were much higher than expected, but investors were more concerned with manufacturing and unemployment. Housing had a very strong rebound, but that makes it more vulnerable during these corrective phases because the fundamentals haven't caught up to the price.

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Don Dion is president and founder of Dion Money Management, a fee-based investment advisory firm to affluent individuals, families and nonprofit organizations, where he is responsible for setting investment policy, creating custom portfolios and overseeing the performance of client accounts. Founded in 1996 and based in Williamstown, Mass., Dion Money Management manages assets for clients in 49 states and 11 countries. Dion is a licensed attorney in Massachusetts and Maine and has more than 25 years' experience working in the financial markets, having founded and run two publicly traded companies before establishing Dion Money Management.

Dion also is publisher of the Fidelity Independent Adviser family of newsletters, which provides to a broad range of investors his commentary on the financial markets, with a specific emphasis on mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. With more than 100,000 subscribers in the U.S. and 29 other countries, Fidelity Independent Adviser publishes six monthly newsletters and three weekly newsletters. Its flagship publication, Fidelity Independent Adviser, has been published monthly for 11 years and reaches 40,000 subscribers.

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